In its most recent country-level analysis for Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), IHS said countries where the market for access control equipment is mature (i.e., France, United Kingdom and Germany) experienced only minor volatility in 2015. According to Blake Kozak, principal analyst for security and building technologies at IHS, the combined compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast for 2014 through 2019 in Germany, Russia, United Kingdom and France shifted only slightly from 5.3 percent to 5.4 percent. The biggest changes in the forecast came from France and Russia. Kozak said that France’s CAGR forecast between 2015 and 2019 rose from 3.9 percent to 5.0 percent, while Russia’s CAGR during the same period fell from 2.6 percent to 0.3 percent.
The French market, which is relatively untapped when compared to the UK and Germany, is expected to continue to be a target market for international suppliers through 2019, especially for electronic locks Due in large part to the recent terrorist attacks in France, Kozak said that securing access to public places and accenting citizen safety in that country has become a priority. Development of governmental systems for access control is likely to receive backing from both the public and the parliament, however, Kozak added that any growth in the government sector will take time to develop, so short-term growth is not expected for government applications.
The Russian market for access control equipment continues to challenge international suppliers, primarily because of exchange-rate volatility. In fact, IHS said the market contracted by 5.3 percent in 2015 and will shrink by another 1.9 percent in 2016. Kozak believes future opportunities for growth in Russia will hinge mostly on the state of national economic conditions. If oil prices continue to fall, the exchange rate worsens, and competition from local and Chinese vendors rises, the Russian market will remain unfavorable for international suppliers.
