While the North American security industry tends to thrive no matter who is at the helm of the U.S. government, a changing of the guard from Biden to Trump will certainly signal that some changes are coming.
"As the second Trump administration takes shape, what to expect will become clearer in the coming weeks and months," says Jake Parker, Senior Director of Government Relations for the Security Industry Association (SIA). "One of challenges will be accomplishing these goals while addressing growing concerns about budget deficits among those coming to power, which could potentially result in significant cuts to programs and agency activities with security functions. It will be pivotal to make the case for benefits and appropriateness of these programs during budget considerations."
Thankfully, since Donald Trump has already served one term as President of the United States, it becomes easier to judge his priorities simply based on historical precedent. Here’s a look at some of his potential stances, actions and impacts:
What we know/learned from the first Trump term
China-based manufacturers face an uphill climb: Trump made it a priority to hamper the ability of China-based companies to operate in the United States. A 2020 executive order prohibited U.S. companies and individuals from investing in any companies previously identified as having links with the Chinese military. Notably, as a part of a provision in the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that went into effect in August 2019, federal agencies became prohibited from purchasing video surveillance products from Hikvision, Dahua and Hytera Technologies, and a Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) mandated that security integrators that want to do business with the federal government had to remove Hikvision and Dahua products from their supply chains.
None of this changed under the Biden Administration; however, do not expect any easing of restrictions on China-based companies.
Tariffs: Under Trump, a wide variety of security-related components and technologies were subject to increased tariffs, including copper wire, electronic circuit boards, camera lens accessories, fiber optic connectors, and more. Even under Biden, the tariff rate on China-made semiconductors and solar cells increased to 50 percent in 2024.
With the degree of Trump's rhetoric on tariffs, it remains to be seen how many more items and components may be affected; however, manufacturers in the video surveillance, power, wiring, and alarm industries should be bracing for something to happen – which of course means those costs will need to be passed on to distributors, integrators, and eventually end-users.
"It will be important to watch how campaign themes translate into concrete policies, particularly on tariffs," Parker says. "Indiscriminate tariffs on imports would have a serious impact on sectors like the security industry that depend heavily on global supply chains for electronics vs. more targeted measures that may extend duties on specific Chinese-made products, for example."
Jake Braunger, VP of Advocacy and Public Affiars for the Electronic Security Association (ESA), agrees: "We are worried about the tariffs in general – not just on China. No matter where the devices are produced, if they are made outside of the U.S., they could be impacted on cost."
Border security: Trump's first-term approach to border security relied heavily on a combination of physical infrastructure (walls), but also advanced technologies, such as drones, sensors, surveillance towers, AI-driven analytics, biometric entry scans for people, advanced inspection systems, and more. As much of his campaign again focused on lax border security, it stands to reason that more technology is coming to the border in his second term.
"There’s no doubt that border security initiatives will once again become front and center, with growing demand for physical and technological solutions for ports of entry and situational awareness along the border," Parker confirms.
Where we can make educated speculation
Rollbacks of Biden policies: During his first two years in office (2017-2019), Trump focused heavily on rolling back many policies enacted by the Obama administration, and it was estimated he rolled back more than 100 Obama-era policies across various sectors, including environmental regulations, healthcare, labor, and immigration.
While it is obviously unclear which policies this will impact, it is apparent that some measure of rollbacks on Biden policies and legislation are coming. Be on the lookout for changes to Biden-enacted security industry-relevant legislation such as the CHIPS Act and the National Cybersecurity Strategy; and executive orders aimed at AI regulation (see below), federal and private sector cybersecurity, cannabis and others.
AI deregulation: During his first term, Trump emphasized AI development without overburdening companies with restrictive regulations; in fact, his 2019 executive order promoted “trustworthy AI” without establishing binding regulations on private-sector businesses. Trump has pledged to repeal Biden's AI-focused executive order “on day one” – which includes oversight of high-risk AI models and reporting requirements for AI developers.
"ESA, SIA, and The Monitoring Association (TMA), during our visit to Capitol Hill last year, talked about the AI framework with Congressional leaders," Braunger says. "Obviously, it is in the interest for the U.S. to regulate it, but we are seeking for those regulations to not be restrictive and stifle innovation. Hopefully, there will be some interest with a right-leaning Congress to put that framework in place."
Easing of national privacy regulations: Trump and Republicans generally side with state regulation vs. federal; thus, we can speculate this will negatively impact the push for a national privacy law, such as the bipartisan American Data Privacy Protection Act (ADPPA) in favor of state-based regulation such as the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA).
Easing of business regulations: While more of a nebulous category, Trump often sides against business regulation for both large and small businesses. This may bode well for some of the business-friendly provisions – the deduction for domestic research and development expenses, 100% bonus depreciation, and a cap on deducting business interest expenses tied to EBITDA – included in the failed Congressional bill H.R. 7024.
"For security firms, the tax policy changes and extensions that must be enacted in 2025 will skew towards Republican policy proposals," Parker says. "This means the corporate tax rate will remain at 21% or lower, the research and development tax credit could be revived and extended, and bonus depreciation that allows businesses to write off 100% the cost of security improvements to their facilities could be reinstated – all policies important to security manufacturers and integrators large and small."
ESA's Braunger says he expects the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to me more business friendly, especially as it relates to ESA and SIA's joint opposition to a petition to reconfigure the Lower 900 MHz Band, which is depended upon for Z-wave and other security device and alarm system communications, as well as electronic access control devices and a wide range of other radio frequency operations.
Related: ESA's Legislative Priorities
As for the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), Braunger hopes a new administration will look favorably upon ESA's opposition of the FTC’s negative option (click-to-cancel) rule, which ESA says imposes unnecessary and unlawful burdens on America’s electronic security and life safety companies.
"Under Biden, the FTC targeted junk fees and tackled smaller consumer issues, and they have been too aggressive in doing so," Braunger says. ESA has filed an emergency petition for review with the U.S. Court of Appeals on this topic.
What security business owners say
As part of the annual Security Business magazine State of the Industry survey of U.S.-based security integration and consulting firms (results coming this December), we asked the open-ended question: What concerns you most about 2025?
As you can imagine, many of the responses expressed concern about the direction of the country politically and the pending (at the time) election. To get a feel for their concerns, here’s a look at some of the responses:
- “Many people are letting their emotions take over, which is leading them to overlook the bigger picture. As security professionals, it is important for us to learn more about domestic terrorism so we can better protect ourselves and those we work with.”
- “Increased violence in America will increase demand for security services for some, while recession will make improved security unobtainable for others.”
- “Hopefully there will be no import tariffs, as this will likely spike inflation.”
- “The possibility of inflation negatively affecting client and prospect consulting budgets.”
- “Macroeconomic and tax issues affecting business profitability.”
- “Congressional inaction.”
- “Political regulations.”
- “A new administration, which means new regulations.”
- “Uncertainty is running rampant and companies are questioning every move.”
