Security Industry Shows Strong Confidence Despite Trade Policy Concerns, SIA Survey Reveals

This spring, the security industry continues to show strong confidence, as indicated by the March/April 2025 Security Market Index (SMI) survey conducted by the Security Industry Association (SIA).

Despite some concerns regarding the new administration's trade policies, the survey reveals that 22% of respondents rated their current business conditions as “excellent,” while 54% described them as “good.”

The SMI aims to offer a comprehensive overview of the security industry’s confidence levels every two months by closely analyzing six specific business measures through a targeted survey of SIA members. These measures include:

• Number of employees or hours worked
• Marketing spending
• Product production or service output
• Capital equipment spending
• R&D spending
• Product or service sales

The SMI gauges industry confidence through a formula that incorporates three-month forecasts for five essential business elements. For the March-April period, the index decreased by four points to 56, which is still two points above the 12-month rolling average of 54.

Trump Tariff Jitters

The March-April 2025 SMI places special emphasis on the impact of tariff considerations on short-term growth expectations within the security industry, as well as the perspectives of security industry executives regarding tariffs.

Security leaders are increasingly concerned about the potential impact of tariffs on their businesses. When asked about the Trump administration’s proposed tariffs, 43% of respondents anticipated a “negative” impact, while 11% foresaw a “very negative” impact. In contrast, only 10% expected a “positive” or “very positive” outcome, and 35% believed tariffs would have “no major impact.”

This concern extends beyond the security industry, as broader economic data shows similar anxieties across multiple business sectors. Many business leaders view President Trump's tariff policies as a significant challenge, citing potential disruptions to costs, supply chains and overall economic stability.

For example, a recent survey by the Financial Times and the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business indicates that economists expect slower U.S. economic growth and rising inflation due to the administration’s sweeping tariffs and efforts to downsize the federal government. The projected 2025 growth rate has been revised downward from 2.3% to 1.6%, with core inflation expected to reach 2.8% by year’s end.

Scott Dunn, Chair of SIA’s Board of Directors and an executive at Axis Communications, notes in the latest SMI that SIA’s Government Relations Department is actively monitoring tariff developments and advocating for policies that promote growth in the security industry.

“There are always challenges for businesses to overcome, but we at SIA, like the majority of survey respondents, are looking forward to a prosperous 2025,” he says.

The full report is available to SIA members here.